Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.058874 0.067415 0.077037 0.088734 0.102639 0.118730 0.138886
2025-11-16 0.046177 0.056623 0.069418 0.086426 0.108719 0.137335 0.177485
2025-11-23 0.037240 0.048382 0.063043 0.084130 0.114332 0.157060 0.224020
2025-11-30 0.031240 0.042774 0.058985 0.084104 0.123313 0.184462 0.291971
2025-12-07 0.026486 0.038020 0.055233 0.083823 0.132288 0.215519 0.380214
2025-12-14 0.022148 0.033115 0.050362 0.080842 0.136559 0.241338 0.474115
2025-12-21 0.017936 0.027706 0.043736 0.073546 0.131607 0.249705 0.540726
2025-12-28 0.015707 0.025134 0.041331 0.073209 0.139936 0.288650 0.704088
2026-01-04 0.014115 0.023375 0.040024 0.074701 0.152842 0.344612 0.959595
2026-01-11 0.012617 0.021541 0.038252 0.074909 0.163397 0.401651 1.279449
2026-01-18 0.011332 0.019895 0.036548 0.074902 0.173824 0.465756 1.707580
2026-01-25 0.010054 0.018074 0.034176 0.072857 0.178605 0.517668 2.169924
2026-02-01 0.008788 0.016126 0.031278 0.069055 0.177905 0.554706 2.647946
2026-02-08 0.008034 0.015103 0.030192 0.069533 0.190399 0.651040 3.692133
2026-02-15 0.007348 0.014122 0.029031 0.069568 0.201984 0.756753 5.139794
2026-02-22 0.006836 0.013440 0.028444 0.071072 0.219753 0.911236 7.654992
2026-03-01 0.006357 0.012763 0.027749 0.072120 0.236919 1.086790 11.444294
2026-03-08 0.005808 0.011855 0.026336 0.070659 0.243965 1.219062 15.741551
2026-03-15 0.005142 0.010598 0.023847 0.065213 0.232091 1.223180 18.048228
2026-03-22 0.004806 0.010075 0.023182 0.065557 0.246268 1.430487 27.304523
2026-03-29 0.004564 0.009743 0.022969 0.067403 0.269042 1.749630 46.185543
2026-04-05 0.004298 0.009322 0.022444 0.068036 0.286731 2.070392 75.907782
2026-04-12 0.004049 0.008910 0.021881 0.068402 0.303774 2.434369 127.754647